气候变化背景下河南烟区气象资源及气象风险因素时空分布特征
Acta Tabacaria Sinica（2023）
中国烟草总公司郑州烟草研究院
Abstract
[背景和目的]为明确气候变暖背景下,河南烟区气候条件及气象风险因素时空变化特征,及两者之间的相关性.[方法]利用河南省20个县(市、区)2000-2019年气象资料,借助一元线性趋势、Mann-Kendall检验等方法,分析了河南烟区气象资源及气象风险因素时空分布特征.[结果](1)近20年河南烟区烤烟成熟期气候资源发生明显变化,具体表现为:平均气温整体呈升高趋势,以襄城县和内乡县为中心的区域降雨量显著减少,以临颍县和泌阳县为中心的区域光合有效辐射呈增加趋势,以洛宁县、汝州市和方城县为中心的区域平均相对湿度显著减少,以舞阳县和邓州市为中心的区域昼夜温差显著增加.(2)以郏县和灵宝市为中心的区域,在旺长期-成熟前期高温风险相对较高,豫南地区在成熟后期面临一定的高温风险.近年来部分县区烤烟成熟期高温天数显著增加,高温风险的增加不仅与平均气温的升高密切相关,同时与成熟前期降雨量和干旱强度呈显著负相关.(3)以叶县为中心的区域暴雨风险相对较高,近年来暴雨发生频率有降低趋势,主要与成熟前期雨量的减少密切相关.(4)以禹州市和汝州市为中心的区域伸根期干旱风险相对较高,近年来有减轻趋势;各县区旺长期-成熟前期均面临较高的干旱风险,部分县区有增强趋势.[结论]近20年来河南烟区烤烟成熟期气候条件发生较大变化,部分地区高温和干旱风险有进一步增强趋势,暴雨发生频率有所降低.
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Key words
climate change,Henan,flue-cured tobacco,meteorological resources,meteorological risk factors,temporal and spatial distribution
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