Habitat Suitability Modelling to Predict the Distribution of Deep Coral Ecosystems: the Case of Linosa Island (southern Mediterranean Sea, Italy)

In areas with limited field data, predictive habitat mapping is a valuable method for elucidating speciesenvironment relationships and enhancing our knowledge of the spatial distribution and complexity of benthic habitats. Species distribution models (SDMs) can be an important tool to support in science-based ecosystem management. The availability of direct observations of mesophotic species, including gorgonians and black corals, during costly surveys is generally limited. Therefore, predicting the distribution of mesophotic species in relation to key physical parameters of the seafloor would help improving conservation strategies in existing and new Marine Protected Areas (MPAs). This study aims to assess the distribution of gorgonians and black corals off Linosa Island, in the Strait of Sicily, a biogeographic boundary area between the western and eastern Mediterranean. The volcanic island of Linosa represents a small, naturally preserved area, with very limited human pressure, hosting rich marine benthic biodiversity on its wide submarine portions. Distribution of the most common coral species off Linosa Island was modelled under an SDM framework, relying on direct observations collected during two research cruises in 2016 and 2017 and a series of terrain parameters acquired through geophysical techniques. We used the so-called "ensemble of small models" approach to calibrate SDMs, which achieved fair-to-excellent results (AUC >0.7). In addition to identifying depth as the primary factor influencing coral distribution, our study also highlighted ruggedness as a significant terrain variable. Specifically, the depth range of 110-230 m emerged as the critical parameter determining habitat suitability for all modelled species, also highlighting peculiar and specie-specific habitat requirements.