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    • Development Tendency Analysis and Early Warning of Resource and Environmental Carrying Capacity Based on System Dynamics Model in Qaidam Salt Lake,China

    Dan Zhang,Chunping Min, Hui Yu,Jianping Wang, Peng Xue, Dongmei Yu,Liang Chen, Ziwei Rong,Qi Zhang, Rongshan Wan

    Ecological Indicators（2025）SCI 2区

    Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment

    Cited 0|Views8
    Abstract
    Assessing the environmental carrying capacity for salt lake resources is essential for promoting sustainable development and use. A system dynamics (SD) model was employed to investigate the interrelationships among the economy, water resources, mineral resources, and the environment of Qaidam Salt Lake, scientifically focusing on the developmental requirements for potash and lithium resource development. An integrated evaluation system was developed to measure resource and environmental carrying capacity. Four different development scenarios were simulated to analyze the development tendencies of resource and environmental carrying capacity from 2021 to 2050, with early warnings issued. The results showed that: (1) The integrated carrying capacity of water resources and the environment initially declines before experiencing a subsequent increase. The water resources carrying capacity remains non-overloaded, while the environmental carrying capacity shows signs of overload. (2) By 2050, the carrying capacity for potash is projected to range from 7.91 to 9.17 million tons, whereas the carrying capacity for lithium is expected to range from 0.25 to 0.26 million tons. (3) Under the Business As Usual (BAU) and Increased Demand Scenarios (IDS), orange or red warnings are predicted during 2027–2044 and 2026–2050, respectively. In contrast, the Resource-saving Scenario (RSS) and Technology Enhancement Scenario (TES) result in lower environmental pressure, triggering only up to yellow warnings. A comprehensive assessment of resource consumption, environmental protection, and economic development shows that the TES scenario is most conducive to regional sustainable development. The findings provide a scientific basis for evaluating resource development levels and mitigating risks associated with resource depletion and environmental degradation due to over-exploitation. Furthermore, they contribute to sustainable management strategies for Qaidam Salt Lake and serve as a reference for similar regions.
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    Key words
    Qaidam Salt Lake,Resource and environmental carrying capacity,Development tendency analysis,Early warnings,SD model
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    【要点】：本文通过系统动力学模型分析了中国柴达木盐湖资源与环境承载力的发展趋势，提出了一种综合评价体系，并对不同发展情景下的承载力进行了模拟预测及早期预警。
    

    【方法】：采用系统动力学模型构建了包含经济、水资源、矿产资源与环境之间相互关系的综合评价体系。
    

    【实验】：通过模拟四种不同发展情景（BAU、IDS、RSS、TES），分析了2021至2050年柴达木盐湖资源与环境承载力的变化趋势，使用的数据集为柴达木盐湖相关资源与环境参数，结果表明技术增强情景（TES）对区域可持续发展最为有利。