Feasibility of Coseismic Landslide Prediction Based on GNSS Observations: A Case Study of the 2022 Ms 6.8 Luding, China, Earthquake
SEISMOLOGICAL RESEARCH LETTERS（2025）
Southern Univ Sci & Technol
Abstract
On 5 September 2022, an M 6.8 earthquake struck Luding County in Sichuan Province, China, triggering extensive landslides and causing severe damages. In this study, taking this event as an exemplary case study, we test the feasibility of fast earthquake-induced landslide prediction utilizing Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) observations. Particularly, we construct finite-slip models based on static offsets and 1 Hz displacement waveforms. Employing these slip models, physics-based simulation (PBS) is applied separately to obtain peak ground velocity (PGV). The PGVs are then integrated into landslide spatial distribution probability prediction based on the Deep Forest algorithm. Our results show that the predicted landslides probability distribution of fast inversion models using static and high-rate GNSS data align well with the landslide catalog. Furthermore, high-rate GNSS data can improve the model performance by providing the evolution information of rupture. In addition, we also derive PGV from the empirically regressed ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) and incorporate it into landslide prediction. The GMPEs exhibits an advantage in terms of prediction recall for landslides and a relatively reduced accuracy compared with the PBS. Despite the inherent uncertainties in this study, based on the case study of the 2022 M 6.8 Luding earthquake, we utilize GNSS data and present a set of methods for real-time landslide prediction. The achieved model performance is relatively satisfactory, considering the challenges and uncertainties involved.
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