Uncertainty Analysis of Initial Orbit Determination in the Minimum Radar Admissible Region.
Scientific reports（2025）
Space Engineering University
Abstract
The poor accuracy of the single solution of the initial orbit determination (IOD) affects the precise orbit determination, target matching and arc-segment correlation. This paper proposes a method for analyzing the uncertainty of the IOD results based on the Minimum Radar Admissible Region (MRAR), which describes the IOD results in the form of probability in the region bounded by the minimum admissible region. The MRAR can contain the real orbit state with a probability greater than 99.7%; the weight coefficients of each sampling point in the MRAR are calculated by using the Bayesian formula, and the probability density function of the IOD is obtained by using the weighted kernel density estimation method. The simulation experiment proves that the proposed method can well describe the possibility of each point in the MRAR to be the real orbit state, and can provide a better initial value for the subsequent space mission analysis.
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